PATRICK MARCHESIELLO Tel/Fax: +687 26 07 24 Patrick.Marchesiello@noumea.ird.nc IRD Noumea Center BPA5 - 98848 Noumea Cedex New Caledonia

EXPERIMENTAL WEATHER FORECAST IN NEW CALEDONIA
DISCLAIMER: Our main goal is to improve our regional modeling capability through validation using any available information, either from professionals or the general public experience. The achievement of this goal involves the presentation of experimental graphical products, which are provided "as is" without warranty of any kind, including any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose.
Collaborator: Jerome Lefevre (IRD, Noumea)

ZOOM "PROVINCE SUD" (6km resolution)

Field (mpeg animations)	Today				Tomorrow				In 2 days
Temperatures	00h	06h	12h	18h	00h	06h	12h	18h	00h	06h	12h	18h
Humidity	00h	06h	12h	18h	00h	06h	12h	18h	00h	06h	12h	18h
Precipitations	00h	06h	12h	18h	00h	06h	12h	18h	00h	06h	12h	18h
Clouds	00h	06h	12h	18h	00h	06h	12h	18h	00h	06h	12h	18h
Winds	00h	06h	12h	18h	00h	06h	12h	18h	00h	06h	12h	18h

NEW-CALEDONIA EEZ (20 km resolution)

Field (mpeg animations)	Today				Tomorrow				In 2 days
Temperatures	00h	06h	12h	18h	00h	06h	12h	18h	00h	06h	12h	18h
Humidity	00h	06h	12h	18h	00h	06h	12h	18h	00h	06h	12h	18h
Precipitations	00h	06h	12h	18h	00h	06h	12h	18h	00h	06h	12h	18h
Clouds	00h	06h	12h	18h	00h	06h	12h	18h	00h	06h	12h	18h
Winds	00h	06h	12h	18h	00h	06h	12h	18h	00h	06h	12h	18h

AEROSOLS DRY DEPOSITION AROUND NOUMEA (450m resolution)

	Today	Tomorrow	In 2 days
Black Carbon	00-08h	00-08h	00-08h

DESCRIPTION:

The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) modeling system is run on 3-level 2-way nested domains spanning the area of New-Caledonia EEZ (20km resolution) with refinement of the horizontal resolution over the Southern Province (6km), and Noumea (2km resolution). Terrestrial data are provided by the US Geological Survey, apart from the 50m topography of New Caledonia, which is provided by New Caledonia SGVL. The forecast uses initial and boundary data from the Global Forecast/Analysis System of the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP, NWS/NOAA). The simulation starts one day before present using initial and boundary data interpolated from the 1-degree, 6-hourly NCEP Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS). Next, a 4 day forecast is conducted using boundary data from the 1-degree, 3-hourly NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS).

GFS is run four times per day (00 UTC, 06 UTC, 12 UTC, and 18 UTC) out to 16 days.For the first week, computation is done at a resolution of about 45-km. The GFS data is then gridded for users on a global 0.5-degre resolution grid.

FLEXPART is used for aerosol analyses as a post-processing addition to WRF. It is a Lagrangian particle model for atmospheric transport modeling and analysis. The mean conditions are obtained from WRF, while turbulent wind fluctuations are based on boundary layer parameters (and a Markov model of random mixing). The graphics show accumulation of dry deposition at night when deposition is maximum due to weaker vertical dispersion of aerosols in the stable nocturnal boundary layer.